Earth Changes · Daily Report · October 4, 2026, 8:13 PM CDT
Hurricane Nolo is churning in the eastern Pacific with top winds near 115 mph and a central pressure of 959 millibars, moving west at 17 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.[1] It is one of 2 tropical systems the center is tracking, along with Hurricane Rachel.
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has 59 severe or extreme alerts in effect, led by 31 flood warnings across FL, GA, IA, IL and more.[2]
Elsewhere, a magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck Volcano Islands, Japan region at 11:12 a.m. UTC on Oct. 4, about 10 km (≈6 miles) below the surface, the U.S. Geological Survey reports[3]. The USGS PAGER system rates the expected impact GREEN. It was one of 13 quakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater in the past day.
Today at a Glance
- 13 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, the largest M5.5
- 2 active tropical systems: Hurricane Nolo, Hurricane Rachel
- 59 severe or extreme U.S. weather alerts
- 5 U.S. volcanoes above normal, including Great Sitkin, Kilauea
- 0 sinkhole reports in the news
Could not be reached for this edition: Smithsonian weekly volcano report.
Where It’s Happening
Numbered pins match the list under the map. Storm and quake pins are the agencies' reported centers; sinkhole pins mark the town named in the report. Map data: OpenStreetMap contributors.
1. Extreme Weather
Tropical storms and hurricanes
- Hurricane Nolo (eastern Pacific): top winds near 115 mph, moving west at 17 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
- Hurricane Rachel (eastern Pacific): top winds near 105 mph, moving west at 6 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
Across the United States, the National Weather Service has 59 alerts rated severe or extreme in effect.[2]
| Alert | Number | States |
|---|---|---|
| Flood Warning | 31 | FL, GA, IA, IL, KS, MO and more |
| Extreme Heat Warning | 9 | CA |
| Flood Watch | 6 | AL, FL, GA, IA, LA, MS |
| Red Flag Warning | 3 | MT, WY |
| Special Marine Warning | 3 | AM, GM |
| Extreme Heat Watch | 2 | AZ, CA |
| Flash Flood Warning | 2 | GA, SC |
| Freeze Warning | 2 | MN, WI |
| Freeze Watch | 1 | PA |
The Storm Prediction Center says no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast today.[4]
Around the world, GDACS logged 27 wildfire, 2 flood, 2 earthquake notices in the past two days, all at its lowest (Green) level.[5]
2. Earthquakes
The USGS recorded 13 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater in the past 24 hours.[6] The strongest:
| Mag. | Where | When | Depth | PAGER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Volcano Islands, Japan region | Oct. 4, 11:12 a.m. UTC | 10 km | GREEN |
| 5.0 | 295 km S of Burica, Panama | Oct. 4, 2:06 p.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 5.0 | 21 km ESE of Feke, Turkey | Oct. 4, 11:43 a.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 5.0 | 37 km N of Ruteng, Indonesia | Oct. 4, 10:13 a.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 4.9 | South Sandwich Islands region | Oct. 4, 1:47 a.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 4.9 | 21 km NE of Lae, Papua New Guinea | Oct. 4, 1:38 a.m. UTC | 94 km | — |
| 4.8 | 32 km SSE of Jurm, Afghanistan | Oct. 4, 8:27 p.m. UTC | 249 km | — |
| 4.8 | 43 km N of Ruteng, Indonesia | Oct. 4, 10:52 a.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
PAGER is the USGS estimate of likely deaths and damage: GREEN means little or none expected, RED means extensive. A dash means none was issued.
3. Volcanoes
In the United States, 5 volcanoes are above normal background activity, according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s observatories:
| Volcano | Alert / aviation code | Latest word from scientists |
|---|---|---|
| Great Sitkin | Watch / Orange | Slow eruption of lava within the summit crater continues.[7] |
| Kilauea | Watch / Orange | No overflows or spattering at north or south vents over the past day; strong glow and flames continue. No reactivation of Sept. 30–Oct. 1 intrusion. Earthquake activity continues underneath Halemaʻumaʻu. No anomalous activity outside the summit.[8] |
| Ahyi Seamount | Advisory / Yellow | No plumes seen in satellite images; no significant geophysical signals.[9] |
| Gareloi | Advisory / Yellow | No above background activity observed over the past day.[7] |
| Shishaldin | Advisory / Yellow | Low-level unrest continues.[7] |
Alert levels run Normal, Advisory, Watch, Warning. Aviation codes run Green, Yellow, Orange, Red.
4. Sinkholes
We found no new news reports of sinkholes opening in the past 24 hours.
Also in the News
Other natural-hazard video from the past day, from news organizations:
Video: ABC News, October 4, 2026 — “Dangerous, record-breaking heat wave scorching Southern California”. Also in the news. Picked because its title names a natural hazard; it may not be covered in the data above.
Video: Reuters, October 4, 2026 — “Heavy rains flood streets and submerge cars in Spain's Catalonia”. Also in the news.
5. What the Experts Say
These are the words of the scientists and forecasters who watch these hazards for a living, quoted exactly.
“Recent visible and infrared imagery show that outer rainbands have developed over the western semicircle, and Nolo is no longer exhibiting annular appearance. Shortly after the previous advisory, infrared imagery showed warming of the cloud tops and a thinning of the inner core convection over the southwestern quadrant. The eye has become more cloud filled and not as warm with an eye temperature around 7 C. A recent GMI microwave pass shows that the inner core is vertically aligned and perhaps the recent satellite degradation could just be a brief lull. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 95 to 102 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is maintained at 100 kt.”
— Forecaster Kelly, National Hurricane Center, on Hurricane Nolo[10]
“Rachel has not changed much during the past several hours. The hurricane continues to have a well established inner core, but the eye has become a little more cloud-filled and ragged compared to this morning. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 85 to 97 kt, and based on that data and the relatively steady state appearance of the system, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt. A 1616 UTC ASCAT-B was helpful in adjusting the initial wind radii.”
— Forecaster Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center, on Hurricane Rachel[11]
“Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. tonight.”
— Forecaster Squitieri, NOAA Storm Prediction Center[4]
“The Philippine Sea plate is bordered by the larger Pacific and Eurasia plates and the smaller Sunda plate. The Philippine Sea plate is unusual in that its borders are nearly all zones of plate convergence. The Pacific plate is subducted into the mantle, south of Japan, beneath the Izu-Bonin and Mariana island arcs, which extend more than 3,000 km along the eastern margin of the Philippine Sea plate.”
— U.S. Geological Survey, “Seismotectonics of the Philippine Sea and Vicinity,” on the region around the M5.5 quake[12]
“Lava continues to erupt slowly within the summit crater of Great Sitkin Volcano. Minor earthquakes were detected in the past day. Cloud cover has obscured views of the volcano by satellite and webcam.”
— Alaska Volcano Observatory, on Great Sitkin[7]
“There have been no overflows or spatter from north or vents in the past 24 hours, although there was strong glow and flames from the vents overnight. The summit intrusion that happened the night of September 30 to October 1 has not reactivated, although earthquake activity has continued underneath Halemaʻumaʻu and summit tiltmeters recorded minor inflation.”
— Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, on Kilauea[8]
“Sinkholes are common where the rock below the land surface is limestone, carbonate rock, salt beds, or other rocks that can naturally be dissolved by groundwater circulating through them. As the rock dissolves, spaces and caverns develop underground. Sinkholes are dramatic because the land usually stays intact for a while until the underground spaces just get too big.”
— U.S. Geological Survey Water Science School, on why sinkholes form[13]
How to Prepare
- Keep a basic kit: water (one gallon per person per day for several days), food, a battery or hand-crank radio, a whistle, a dust mask and phone chargers.[14]
- Get alerts: Wireless Emergency Alerts need no sign-up; the FEMA app, NOAA Weather Radio, the USGS Earthquake Notification Service and the USGS Volcano Notification Service are free.
- Floods: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot can sweep a car away.[15]
- Earthquakes: Drop, Cover and Hold On.[16]
How to Verify This Yourself
- Earthquakes: USGS Latest Earthquakes map
- U.S. volcanoes: USGS Volcano Hazards Program; world: Smithsonian weekly report
- Weather alerts: weather.gov; tropics: nhc.noaa.gov
- Worldwide disasters: gdacs.org
References
- National Hurricane Center, active storms data nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- National Weather Service, active alerts API api.weather.gov. ↩
- USGS, M5.5 Volcano Islands, Japan region event page earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Day 1 Convective Outlook spc.noaa.gov. ↩
- GDACS, Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System gdacs.org. ↩
- USGS, M4.5+ earthquakes, past day (real-time feed) earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- Alaska Volcano Observatory, Great Sitkin notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Kilauea notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- Northern Mariana Islands, Ahyi Seamount notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- National Hurricane Center, Nolo forecast discussion nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- National Hurricane Center, Rachel forecast discussion nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- USGS Geoserve, tectonic summary earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- USGS Water Science School, Sinkholes usgs.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Build a Kit ready.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Floods ready.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Earthquakes ready.gov. ↩
Methodology: this report is assembled automatically each morning from the live data feeds of the USGS, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center and GDACS, plus same-day news reports for sinkholes. No AI writes it: the sentences are fixed templates filled with that data, and every quote is copied exactly from the source it is credited to. Data can change after publication; follow the links for the latest.
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