Earth Changes · Daily Report · October 2, 2026, 6:30 AM CDT
Hurricane Rachel is churning in the eastern Pacific with top winds near 115 mph and a central pressure of 955 millibars, moving west at 5 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.[1] It is one of 2 tropical systems the center is tracking, along with Tropical Storm Nolo.
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has 117 severe or extreme alerts in effect, led by 87 flood warnings across AK, AZ, CO, FL and more.[2]
Elsewhere, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake struck 0 km NNE of Yōkaichiba, Japan at 12:27 p.m. UTC on Oct. 1, about 42 km (≈26 miles) below the surface, the U.S. Geological Survey reports[3]. It was one of 14 quakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater in the past day.
Today at a Glance
- 14 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, the largest M5.3
- 2 active tropical systems: Hurricane Rachel, Tropical Storm Nolo
- 117 severe or extreme U.S. weather alerts
- 5 U.S. volcanoes above normal, including Great Sitkin, Kilauea
- 3 sinkhole reports in the news
Could not be reached for this edition: Smithsonian weekly volcano report.
Where It’s Happening
Numbered pins match the list under the map. Storm and quake pins are the agencies' reported centers; sinkhole pins mark the town named in the report. Map data: OpenStreetMap contributors.
1. Extreme Weather
Tropical storms and hurricanes
- Hurricane Rachel (eastern Pacific): top winds near 115 mph, moving west at 5 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
- Tropical Storm Nolo (eastern Pacific): top winds near 65 mph, moving west-northwest at 6 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
Across the United States, the National Weather Service has 117 alerts rated severe or extreme in effect.[2]
| Alert | Number | States |
|---|---|---|
| Flood Warning | 87 | AK, AZ, CO, FL, IA, IL and more |
| Flood Watch | 9 | GU, IL, MP, OK, TX, WI |
| Extreme Heat Warning | 8 | CA |
| Freeze Warning | 4 | MI, MN, ND, WI |
| Special Marine Warning | 4 | GM |
| Flash Flood Warning | 2 | TX |
| Tropical Storm Warning | 2 | MP, PM |
| High Wind Warning | 1 | NM, TX |
The Storm Prediction Center says no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast today.[4]
Around the world, GDACS logged 49 wildfire, 5 flood, 1 earthquake notices in the past two days, all at its lowest (Green) level.[5]
2. Earthquakes
The USGS recorded 14 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater in the past 24 hours.[6] The strongest:
| Mag. | Where | When | Depth | PAGER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | 0 km NNE of Yōkaichiba, Japan | Oct. 1, 12:27 p.m. UTC | 42 km | — |
| 5.1 | 159 km SE of Gizo, Solomon Islands | Oct. 2, 4:44 a.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 5.1 | 176 km SE of Lata, Solomon Islands | Oct. 1, 8:00 p.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 5.1 | 171 km SE of Lata, Solomon Islands | Oct. 1, 7:38 p.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 5.1 | 108 km ENE of Miyako, Japan | Oct. 1, 5:17 p.m. UTC | 35 km | — |
| 5.0 | south of the Fiji Islands | Oct. 2, 4:27 a.m. UTC | 557 km | — |
| 5.0 | 176 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia | Oct. 1, 2:19 p.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 4.9 | 97 km S of Panguna, Papua New Guinea | Oct. 2, 4:10 a.m. UTC | 35 km | — |
PAGER is the USGS estimate of likely deaths and damage: GREEN means little or none expected, RED means extensive. A dash means none was issued.
3. Volcanoes
In the United States, 5 volcanoes are above normal background activity, according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s observatories:
| Volcano | Alert / aviation code | Latest word from scientists |
|---|---|---|
| Great Sitkin | Watch / Orange | Slow eruption of lava within the summit crater continues.[7] |
| Kilauea | Watch / Orange | A shallow intrusion of magma occurred overnight within the summit region near the existing eruption location. North and south vent continue to have intermittent overflows, spatter, and strong glow. There is no anomalous activity outside of the summit.[8] |
| Ahyi Seamount | Advisory / Yellow | No plumes seen in satellite images; no significant geophysical signals.[9] |
| Gareloi | Advisory / Yellow | A single brief explosion was detected in geophysical data at 07:27 AM AKDT (15:27 UTC) prompting a change in the Aviation Color Code/Volcano Alert Level to YELLOW/ADVISORY. No further signs of unrest have been detected.[7] |
| Shishaldin | Advisory / Yellow | Low-level unrest continues.[7] |
Alert levels run Normal, Advisory, Watch, Warning. Aviation codes run Green, Yellow, Orange, Red.
4. Sinkholes
No government agency publishes a live national sinkhole feed, so these come from today’s local news:
- Easthampton: Western Mass News reports, “A large sinkhole has closed part of a busy Easthampton road Easthampton Police added Ferry Street is closed from Pleasant Street to Emerald Place and crews are working to make repairs.”[10]
- News12 reports, “All lanes are open Friday after crews completed repairs on a sinkhole that caused major traffic trouble in Yonkers.”[11]
- NBC10 Philadelphia reports, “Repairs on a massive sinkhole in Philadelphia's Mayfair neighborhood are set to begin Monday, according to the Philadelphia Water Department.”[12]
Also in the News
Other natural-hazard video from the past day, from news organizations:
Video: Associated Press, October 2, 2026 — “Hurricane Polo leaves families homeless after severe flooding in northern Mexico”. Also in the news. Picked because its title names a natural hazard; it may not be covered in the data above.
Video: NBC News, October 2, 2026 — “Tornadoes hit Kansas, severe storm floods multiple states”. Also in the news.
5. What the Experts Say
These are the words of the scientists and forecasters who watch these hazards for a living, quoted exactly.
“Rachel's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat over the past several hours, with the eye becoming obscured in conventional satellite imagery and some mid-level dry air entraining into the northeastern portion of the circulation. However, recent microwave imagery indicates that the inner-core structure remains intact. A 0429 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass helped refine the wind radii and structure. The latest Dvorak Data-T estimate from TAFB decreased to 4.5/77 kt, with objective intensity estimates ranging from 87 to 104 kt. Given these estimates and the degraded satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.”
— Forecaster Gibbs, National Hurricane Center, on Hurricane Rachel[13]
“Nolo is experiencing yet another burst of deep convection within its northwest quadrant. While the southern semicircle remains relatively free of activity, convection is starting to become more persistent about the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO both rated Nolo at 3.5/55 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to exhibit a wide range of intensity estimates, from 35 to 57 kt. Based on these intensity estimates and the improved satellite presentation, Nolo's initial intensity was held at 55 kt.”
— Forecaster Evans/Gibbs, National Hurricane Center, on Tropical Storm Nolo[14]
“Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.”
— NOAA Storm Prediction Center[4]
“The North America plate, Pacific plate, Philippine Sea plate, and Eurasia plate all influence the tectonic setting of Japan, Taiwan, and the surrounding area. Some authors divide the edges of these plates into several microplates that together take up the overall relative motions between the larger tectonic blocks, including the Okhotsk microplate in northern Japan, the Okinawa microplate in southern Japan, the Yangzee microplate in the area of the East China Sea, and the Amur microplate in the area of the Sea of Japan. The seafloor expression of the boundary between the Pacific and North America plates lies 300 km off the east coasts of Hokkaido and Honshu at the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan trenches.”
— U.S. Geological Survey, “Seismotectonics of Japan and Vicinity,” on the region around the M5.3 quake[15]
“Lava continues to erupt slowly within the summit crater of Great Sitkin Volcano. Minor earthquakes were detected in the past day. Clouds obscured satellite and webcam images.”
— Alaska Volcano Observatory, on Great Sitkin[7]
“Over the past 24 hours, north and south vent continued to have intermittent overflows and spattering, with strong glow and flames emitted overnight. As this eruptive activity continued, a shallow intrusion of magma with an east-west orientation occurred within the summit region overnight near the existing eruption location. Intrusive activity was strongest between 8 p.m.”
— Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, on Kilauea[8]
“Sinkholes are common where the rock below the land surface is limestone, carbonate rock, salt beds, or other rocks that can naturally be dissolved by groundwater circulating through them. As the rock dissolves, spaces and caverns develop underground. Sinkholes are dramatic because the land usually stays intact for a while until the underground spaces just get too big.”
— U.S. Geological Survey Water Science School, on why sinkholes form[16]
How to Prepare
- Keep a basic kit: water (one gallon per person per day for several days), food, a battery or hand-crank radio, a whistle, a dust mask and phone chargers.[17]
- Get alerts: Wireless Emergency Alerts need no sign-up; the FEMA app, NOAA Weather Radio, the USGS Earthquake Notification Service and the USGS Volcano Notification Service are free.
- Floods: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot can sweep a car away.[18]
- Earthquakes: Drop, Cover and Hold On.[19]
- Download the checklist: Be Ready: Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Extreme Weather and Sinkholes (PDF), with today’s active hazards first.
How to Verify This Yourself
- Earthquakes: USGS Latest Earthquakes map
- U.S. volcanoes: USGS Volcano Hazards Program; world: Smithsonian weekly report
- Weather alerts: weather.gov; tropics: nhc.noaa.gov
- Worldwide disasters: gdacs.org
References
- National Hurricane Center, active storms data nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- National Weather Service, active alerts API api.weather.gov. ↩
- USGS, M5.3 0 km NNE of Yōkaichiba, Japan event page earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Day 1 Convective Outlook spc.noaa.gov. ↩
- GDACS, Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System gdacs.org. ↩
- USGS, M4.5+ earthquakes, past day (real-time feed) earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- Alaska Volcano Observatory, Great Sitkin notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Kilauea notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- Northern Mariana Islands, Ahyi Seamount notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- Western Mass News, Sinkhole closes part of Ferry Street in Easthampton westernmassnews.com. ↩
- News12, All Lanes Reopen After Yonkers Sinkhole Repairs longisland.news12.com. ↩
- NBC10 Philadelphia, Crews to begin repairs on massive Mayfair sinkhole Monday nbcphiladelphia.com. ↩
- National Hurricane Center, Rachel forecast discussion nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- National Hurricane Center, Nolo forecast discussion nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- USGS Geoserve, tectonic summary earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- USGS Water Science School, Sinkholes usgs.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Build a Kit ready.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Floods ready.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Earthquakes ready.gov. ↩
Methodology: this report is assembled automatically each morning from the live data feeds of the USGS, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center and GDACS, plus same-day news reports for sinkholes. No AI writes it: the sentences are fixed templates filled with that data, and every quote is copied exactly from the source it is credited to. Data can change after publication; follow the links for the latest.
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