Data Watch · Democrats vs. Republicans, Part 7 of 7 · October 13, 2026, 8:00 AM CDT
Key Facts
- The 20 jurisdictions Harris won in 2024 had a median household income of $100,000; the 31 states Trump won had $82,000. Surveys are noisy, and 3 of the Trump-won states are above the typical Harris-won state.[1][2]
- State unemployment in August 2026 had a median of 4.3% in the Harris-won group and 3.5% in the Trump-won group.[3]
- A reference work notes that red and blue labels hide urban-rural differences inside every state. [4]
- Across the series, two of seven measures show a gap unlikely to be chance (jobs added, and GDP growth); only the jobs gap survives a strict adjustment for running seven tests. [5]
We have compared presidents, Congress and voters. For the last part, we look at where people live, and then we add it all up honestly.
This is Part 7 of 7. First, the places. Then, the scorecard for the whole series.
- Part 1: Jobs · Oct 7
- Part 2: Prices and paychecks · Oct 8
- Part 3: Growth and recessions · Oct 9
- Part 4: Debt and deficits · Oct 10
- Part 5: Congress · Oct 11
- Part 6: Voters · Oct 12
- Part 7: Red and blue states (this post)
Red states and blue states
The colors came from television. A reference work says the red-for-Republican, blue-for-Democrat scheme settled in during the 2000 election, after networks had used different colors in earlier years.[4] For this part, “blue” means the states (and Washington, D.C.) Kamala Harris won in 2024, and “red” means the states Donald Trump won.[6]
The typical blue state has a higher median income, but the groups overlap. Utah ($103,000) and Alaska ($102,000) are red states above the typical blue state, while New Mexico ($68,000) is a blue state below the typical red state.[1]
On unemployment the typical red state is lower: a median of 3.5% in the red group against 4.3% in the blue group, with a wide spread in each. Neither group is uniformly better off.[3]
There is a reason a single color per state can mislead. In Part 6 we saw how different urban and rural voters are: Pew found rural voters favored Trump 69% to 29% and urban voters favored Harris 65% to 33%.[2] Every state contains both kinds of places, which is why the red and blue labels hide as much as they show.[4]
The scorecard
Here is the whole series in one table. Same rules for both parties, same sources, seven measures.
| Measure (average per year or month in office) | Democratic | Republican | Gap unlikely to be chance? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jobs added per month (thousands) | 197.8k | 65.9k | Yes (p = 0.006) |
| Average unemployment rate | 5.7% | 5.8% | No (p = 0.801) |
| Inflation per year | 3.6% | 3.5% | No (p = 0.906) |
| Real hourly pay growth per year | 0.3% | 0.3% | No (p = 0.864) |
| Real GDP growth per year | 3.5% | 2.7% | Yes (p = 0.039) |
| Deficit, percent of GDP | 4.0% | 3.9% | No (p = 0.722) |
| Change in debt, points of GDP | 4.3 pts | 5.4 pts | No (p = 0.566) |
Read it plainly. Two gaps look real: jobs added (198,000 a month under Democrats against 66,000 under Republicans) and GDP growth. On unemployment, inflation, pay after inflation, deficits and the change in debt, we cannot tell the parties apart.
- We ran seven comparisons. Even if party labels meant nothing, running seven tests gives about a 30% chance that at least one looks “significant” at the usual 5% bar by luck. A stricter bar for seven tests is 0.05 divided by 7, or about 0.007. The jobs gap (p = 0.006) clears it; the GDP gap (p = 0.039) does not.
- The sample is 6 Democratic and 8 Republican presidencies, in an economy that moves in long cycles. We cannot show causation from fourteen cases.
- Blinder and Watson, using far more data and controls, found a Democratic edge and attributed it to oil shocks, productivity and the world economy, not to monetary or fiscal policy. Our results fit that picture; they do not prove it. [5]
- State income figures come from a survey, with a margin of error. The Census Bureau publishes smoothed versions (two- and three-year averages) for state comparisons because single-year state estimates are noisy. [1]
What to take away
When someone says one party is better for the economy, ask three questions. Which measure? Over what time span, and starting from where? And could something else, like oil prices, the Federal Reserve or a pandemic, explain it?
The honest answer from the data is narrower than either side’s slogans. Some measures differ between parties. Many do not. And almost none of it can be traced to a president’s choices alone.
- Median: the middle value: half are above it and half below
- p-value: how often a gap this big would appear by pure chance if party made no difference
- Margin of error: the range a survey estimate could plausibly be off by
- Red/blue state: a state whose voters chose the Republican or Democratic candidate in the most recent presidential election
Check it yourself: the sources, by tier
Primary sources are the agencies and datasets themselves. Secondary sources are research and analysis built on them. Tertiary sources are reference works. Each was read before it was cited.
- Primary U.S. Census Bureau, Table H-8, “Median Household Income by State” (Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement), 2025 estimates; the Bureau also publishes two- and three-year moving-average versions (H-8A, H-8B) for steadier state comparisons. census.gov
- Secondary Pew Research Center, “Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition,” June 26, 2025 (rural voters: Trump 69%, Harris 29%; urban voters: Harris 65%, Trump 33%). pewresearch.org
- Primary U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, state unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, retrieved Oct 6, 2026 through the BLS public API. bls.gov
- Tertiary “Red states and blue states,” Wikipedia (origin of the color convention in the 2000 election; labels hide urban-rural differences within states). wikipedia.org
- Secondary Blinder, A. S., and Watson, M. W., “Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration,” American Economic Review 106(4), 2016, pp. 1015–1045. doi.org
- Tertiary “2024 United States presidential election,” Wikipedia (Harris won 19 states plus the District of Columbia; Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes, and are counted here as the statewide winner). wikipedia.org
Investigative methodology: this series was written by a person from the sources cited, with every figure computed by a script from the primary data linked in each part; no language model chose or wrote a number. “Democratic” and “Republican” mean the party of the president in office. The comparison describes what happened under each party’s presidents. It does not show that a president or a party caused it.
Kemetic Minds Editorial Desk
Verified NewsroomPrimary-sourced investigative intelligence on civil rights, voting rights, federal policy, and consumer protection. Sourced from primary legal filings, government statistics, and direct field reporting.