Data Watch · Democrats vs. Republicans, Part 4 of 7 · October 10, 2026, 8:00 AM CDT
Key Facts
- Total federal debt stood at $40.17 trillion on September 30, 2026.[1]
- Measured against the size of the economy, the debt ratio changed by a median of -5.1 points under Democratic presidents and +12.5 under Republican ones. The ranges overlap heavily.[1][2]
- Annual deficits averaged about 4.0% of the economy under Democrats and 3.9% under Republicans.[2]
- Fact-checkers and budget experts warn that attributing the debt to one president “doesn’t make sense,” because recessions, wars and Congress drive it. [3]
Every campaign promises to fix the debt. Every president adds to it. This week we ask a narrower question: does either party’s record on borrowing actually look different?
This is Part 4 of 7. Parts 1–3 covered jobs, prices and growth. Today it is borrowing.
- Part 1: Jobs · Oct 7
- Part 2: Prices and paychecks · Oct 8
- Part 3: Growth and recessions · Oct 9
- Part 4: Debt and deficits (this post)
- Part 5: Congress · Oct 11
- Part 6: Voters · Oct 12
- Part 7: Red and blue states · Oct 13
Deficit and debt are different things
A deficit is what the government borrows in one year, when spending runs above revenue. The debt is everything owed after all the years of deficits and surpluses added together.[4]
“Total public debt” includes what the government owes to the public and also what it owes itself, such as Social Security’s trust funds.[4] That is the Treasury figure we use. The same federal debt passed $40 trillion in 2026.[1][4]
Looking only at dollars is misleading: a dollar in 1955 bought far more than a dollar today, and the economy was much smaller. So we also measure against the size of the economy.
Look at the spread. Debt relative to the economy fell under Eisenhower, Johnson, Clinton and rose most under Obama, Trump (1st term), Reagan. Both parties appear on both ends.
Yearly borrowing
On annual deficits the parties look alike: 4.0% of the economy on average under Democratic presidents and 3.9% under Republican ones.[2]
Why this one is so hard to pin on a person
In 2016 a politician said a Democratic president had “left us with $19 trillion in debt.” PolitiFact rated that Mostly False. It confirmed the figure was accurate but found that “about half of the $19 trillion was amassed before Obama took office in January 2009,” and that he inherited a deep recession that cut revenue and raised spending. Experts quoted said Congress, not the president alone, controls the budget, and one said that “attributing the debt to a president doesn’t make sense.” [3]
What the data says, and what it does not
It says that, measured against the economy, neither party’s presidents are cleanly the “big borrowers” or the “small borrowers.” Recessions, wars and tax and spending laws written by Congress swing the numbers more than a party label does.
It does not tell you which policies were worth the borrowing. That is a values question about what the money bought.
- Democratic presidents averaged 5.1 percentage points of GDP less than Republican presidents on this measure. The 95% range around that gap runs from -19.6 to +12.0 percentage points of GDP; if the party label meant nothing, a gap this large would show up in about 56.6% of random shuffles of the 6 Democratic and 7 Republican presidencies.[1][2]
- Democratic presidents averaged 0.4 percentage points of GDP less than Republican presidents on this measure. The 95% range around that gap runs from -2.5 to +1.9 percentage points of GDP; if the party label meant nothing, a gap this large would show up in about 72.2% of random shuffles of the 6 Democratic and 8 Republican presidencies.[2]
- Obama’s +36.2-point change begins just before the 2008–09 financial crisis, and Trump’s first term includes the pandemic. One extreme term can swing a party average, which is why we show medians and the whole range.
- We approximated debt-to-GDP by dividing September 30 debt by that calendar year’s GDP. The exact fiscal-year GDP would shift the lines slightly.
- The second Trump term is shown in dollars only ($4.71 trillion through September 2026); a share-of-GDP figure needs 2026 GDP, which is not published yet.
- Deficit: the amount the government borrows in one year
- Debt: the total owed after all the years of borrowing
- Share of GDP: the amount compared with the size of the whole economy
- Trust fund: money set aside for a program such as Social Security, which the government borrows and records as debt it owes itself
Check it yourself: the sources, by tier
Primary sources are the agencies and datasets themselves. Secondary sources are research and analysis built on them. Tertiary sources are reference works. Each was read before it was cited.
- Primary U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data, “Historical Debt Outstanding” (total public debt outstanding at each fiscal year end), retrieved Oct 6, 2026. fiscaldata.treasury.gov
- Primary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, annual data: nominal GDP (series A191RC) and government net lending or net borrowing (series AD02RC), 1929/1960 to 2025, retrieved Oct 6, 2026. apps.bea.gov
- Secondary PolitiFact, “GOP Rep. Sean Duffy exaggerates role Barack Obama had in $19 trillion debt,” July 19, 2016 (rated Mostly False; quotes budget experts from the Concord Coalition and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget). politifact.com
- Tertiary “National debt of the United States,” Wikipedia (definitions of total public debt, debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings; deficit versus debt; debt passed $40 trillion on August 18, 2026). wikipedia.org
Investigative methodology: this series was written by a person from the sources cited, with every figure computed by a script from the primary data linked in each part; no language model chose or wrote a number. “Democratic” and “Republican” mean the party of the president in office. The comparison describes what happened under each party’s presidents. It does not show that a president or a party caused it.
Kemetic Minds Editorial Desk
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