Earth Changes · Daily Report · September 29, 2026
Hurricane Polo is churning in the eastern Pacific with top winds near 80 mph and a central pressure of 978 millibars, moving northeast at 10 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.[1] “Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas,” forecaster Hagen wrote.[2] It is one of 5 tropical systems the center is tracking, along with Hurricane Nolo, Tropical Storm Rachel, Tropical Storm Hanna and Tropical Storm Fay.
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has 49 severe or extreme alerts in effect, led by 34 flood watches across AZ, CA, CO, IA and more.[3]
Elsewhere, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake struck north of Svalbard at 1:22 p.m. UTC on Sept. 28, about 10 km (≈6 miles) below the surface, the U.S. Geological Survey reports[4]. The USGS PAGER system rates the expected impact GREEN. It was one of 14 quakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater in the past day.
Today at a Glance
- 14 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, the largest M5.4
- 5 active tropical systems: Hurricane Nolo, Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Rachel, Tropical Storm Hanna, Tropical Storm Fay
- 49 severe or extreme U.S. weather alerts
- 4 U.S. volcanoes above normal, including Great Sitkin, Kilauea
- 3 sinkhole reports in the news
Where It’s Happening
Numbered pins match the list under the map. Storm and quake pins are the agencies' reported centers; sinkhole pins mark the town named in the report. Map data: OpenStreetMap contributors.
1. Extreme Weather
Tropical storms and hurricanes
- Hurricane Nolo (eastern Pacific): top winds near 115 mph, moving north-northwest at 15 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
- Hurricane Polo (eastern Pacific): top winds near 80 mph, moving northeast at 10 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
- Tropical Storm Rachel (eastern Pacific): top winds near 60 mph, moving west-northwest at 12 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
- Tropical Storm Hanna (Atlantic): top winds near 45 mph, moving east-southeast at 15 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
- Tropical Storm Fay (Atlantic): top winds near 40 mph, moving southwest at 13 mph. Latest advisory.[1]
Across the United States, the National Weather Service has 49 alerts rated severe or extreme in effect.[3]
| Alert | Number | States |
|---|---|---|
| Flood Watch | 34 | AZ, CA, CO, IA, KS, MO and more |
| Flood Warning | 10 | FL, IA, IL, MA, ND, NM and more |
| Flash Flood Warning | 3 | AZ, UT |
| Coastal Flood Warning | 1 | FL |
| High Wind Warning | 1 | MT |
The Storm Prediction Center says its highest risk level for severe thunderstorms today is marginal, on a scale that runs marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high.[5]
Around the world, GDACS logged 65 wildfire, 3 flood, 1 tropical cyclone, 1 volcano notices in the past two days, all at its lowest (Green) level.[6]
Video: Associated Press, September 29, 2026 — “Floodwaters force evacuations as Hurricane Polo bears down on Mexico”. Matched to this report by the storm, volcano or place name in its title.
Video: TRT World, Turkey's public English-language broadcaster, verified Telegram channel, September 28, 2026 — “Torrential rains inundated Bangkok, swamping roadways and submerging vehicles across the Thai capital. Authorities declared the capital a disaster-affected area on September 26, and by September 28, reported that approxi” Topic: flood. Picked by hazard keywords in the channel’s own caption. Telegram only plays this file in its app: use the button above.
2. Earthquakes
The USGS recorded 14 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater in the past 24 hours.[7] The strongest:
| Mag. | Where | When | Depth | PAGER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | north of Svalbard | Sept. 28, 1:22 p.m. UTC | 10 km | GREEN |
| 5.3 | 76 km NE of Tadine, New Caledonia | Sept. 29, 3:23 a.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 5.0 | 77 km ENE of Tadine, New Caledonia | Sept. 29, 10:42 a.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 4.9 | 2 km SW of Sakai, Japan | Sept. 28, 7:45 p.m. UTC | 71 km | — |
| 4.9 | 124 km SE of Pondaguitan, Philippines | Sept. 28, 3:01 p.m. UTC | 78 km | — |
| 4.9 | 22 km WNW of Malango, Solomon Islands | Sept. 28, 1:38 p.m. UTC | 10 km | — |
| 4.8 | South Sandwich Islands region | Sept. 29, 6:38 a.m. UTC | 35 km | — |
| 4.8 | South Sandwich Islands region | Sept. 29, 4:16 a.m. UTC | 35 km | — |
PAGER is the USGS estimate of likely deaths and damage: GREEN means little or none expected, RED means extensive. A dash means none was issued.
3. Volcanoes
In the United States, 4 volcanoes are above normal background activity, according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s observatories:
| Volcano | Alert / aviation code | Latest word from scientists |
|---|---|---|
| Great Sitkin | Watch / Orange | Slow eruption of lava within the summit crater continues.[8] |
| Kilauea | Watch / Orange | Small overflows from the north vent continue within Halema'uma'u crater at the summit of Kīlauea. All vents have strong glow and intermittent spatter. There is no anomalous activity outside of the summit.[9] |
| Ahyi Seamount | Advisory / Yellow | No plumes seen in satellite images; no significant geophysical signals.[10] |
| Shishaldin | Advisory / Yellow | Low-level unrest continues.[8] |
Alert levels run Normal, Advisory, Watch, Warning. Aviation codes run Green, Yellow, Orange, Red.
4. Sinkholes
No government agency publishes a live national sinkhole feed, so these come from today’s local news:
- Naperville: NCTV17 reports, “Westbound traffic on 95th Street in Naperville is reduced to one lane through the intersection at Book Road as crews monitor a now-filled sinkhole that opened around 5 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 27.”[11]
- FOX 29 Philadelphia reports, “Giant sinkhole in Philly’s Mayfair neighborhood leaves residents frustrated: 'We want our block to be safe' PHILADELPHIA – A massive sinkhole on the 2900 block of Fanshawe Street in Mayfair has become a major concern for neighbors who say it continues to grow, creating unsafe conditions with no clear repair plan from city agencies, according to residents.”[12]
- Belmont: WHDH reports, “A car fell into a sinkhole in Belmont on Sunday morning.”[13]
Also in the News
Other natural-hazard video from the past day, from news organizations:
Video: Sky News, September 29, 2026 — “Nor'easter storm brings severe flooding to the US”. Also in the news. Picked because its title names a natural hazard; it may not be covered in the data above.
Video: FRANCE 24 English, September 29, 2026 — “French firefighters join nationwide protests after devastating summer wildfires • FRANCE 24”. Also in the news. Picked because its title names a natural hazard; it may not be covered in the data above.
5. What the Experts Say
These are the words of the scientists and forecasters who watch these hazards for a living, quoted exactly.
“The cyclone is now moving to the north-northwest at 330/13 kt. A more northward motion is expected through Tuesday in response to the mid- to upper-level trough. By Wednesday, Nolo is forecast to slow down dramatically as it interacts with and ultimately merges with the trough. Significant along-track uncertainty remains beyond 36 hr. The differences in forward motion depend largely on how quick Nolo completes the merger with the trough and the strength of a mid-level ridge that will build to the northwest. By the latter part of this week, the mid-level ridge should steer the system generally westward and nearly parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands within the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. The track forecast blends the previous one toward the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and attempts to reconcile these many complicated steering features.”
— Forecaster Mahoney, National Hurricane Center, on Hurricane Nolo[14]
“Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out (WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z. There is some uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95 kt range. The center has been over land for about 3 hours now, and it is estimated that the maximum winds have come down to about 70 kt.”
— Forecaster Hagen, National Hurricane Center, on Hurricane Polo[2]
“Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas.”
— NOAA Storm Prediction Center[5]
“Earthquake activity was quiet over the past day. Steaming from the summit area was observed in satellite images. Clouds obscured web camera views.”
— Alaska Volcano Observatory, on Great Sitkin[8]
“Episode 55 remains a possibility during the ongoing Kīlauea summit eruption. Precursory overflows from the north vent resumed on the night of September 22 and continue this morning. The south vent also produced a few very small overflows yesterday.”
— Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, on Kilauea[9]
“Sinkholes are common where the rock below the land surface is limestone, carbonate rock, salt beds, or other rocks that can naturally be dissolved by groundwater circulating through them. As the rock dissolves, spaces and caverns develop underground. Sinkholes are dramatic because the land usually stays intact for a while until the underground spaces just get too big.”
— U.S. Geological Survey Water Science School, on why sinkholes form[15]
How to Prepare
- Keep a basic kit: water (one gallon per person per day for several days), food, a battery or hand-crank radio, a whistle, a dust mask and phone chargers.[16]
- Get alerts: Wireless Emergency Alerts need no sign-up; the FEMA app, NOAA Weather Radio, the USGS Earthquake Notification Service and the USGS Volcano Notification Service are free.
- Floods: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot can sweep a car away.[17]
- Earthquakes: Drop, Cover and Hold On.[18]
- Download the checklist: Be Ready: Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Extreme Weather and Sinkholes (PDF), with today’s active hazards first.
How to Verify This Yourself
- Earthquakes: USGS Latest Earthquakes map
- U.S. volcanoes: USGS Volcano Hazards Program; world: Smithsonian weekly report
- Weather alerts: weather.gov; tropics: nhc.noaa.gov
- Worldwide disasters: gdacs.org
References
- National Hurricane Center, active storms data nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- National Hurricane Center, Polo forecast discussion nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- National Weather Service, active alerts API api.weather.gov. ↩
- USGS, M5.4 north of Svalbard event page earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Day 1 Convective Outlook spc.noaa.gov. ↩
- GDACS, Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System gdacs.org. ↩
- USGS, M4.5+ earthquakes, past day (real-time feed) earthquake.usgs.gov. ↩
- Alaska Volcano Observatory, Great Sitkin notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Kilauea notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- Northern Mariana Islands, Ahyi Seamount notice volcanoes.usgs.gov. ↩
- NCTV17, Crews repair sinkhole on 95th Street in Naperville nctv17.org. ↩
- FOX 29 Philadelphia, Giant sinkhole in Philly’s Mayfair neighborhood leaves residents frustrated: 'We want our block to be safe' fox29.com. ↩
- WHDH, Crews respond after car falls into sinkhole in Belmont whdh.com. ↩
- National Hurricane Center, Nolo forecast discussion nhc.noaa.gov. ↩
- USGS Water Science School, Sinkholes usgs.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Build a Kit ready.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Floods ready.gov. ↩
- Ready.gov (FEMA), Earthquakes ready.gov. ↩
Methodology: this report is assembled automatically each morning from the live data feeds of the USGS, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center and GDACS, plus same-day news reports for sinkholes. No AI writes it: the sentences are fixed templates filled with that data, and every quote is copied exactly from the source it is credited to. Data can change after publication; follow the links for the latest.
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